notes on my 2016 vote:
questions after the election
- what will Trump’s first hundred days look like?
- notes from Osnos
- people with him: Christie, William Palatucci, Roger Stone, Gingrich, Stephen Miller, Stephen Moore, Dan DiMicco, Peter Navarro – though it should be noted Trump has historically stated and shown that he values no one’s advice but his own.. Other transition team members (and their associations) listed here.
- as Obama relied heavily on executive order, Trump could undo many accords in about a year, like the Paris GHG Agreement, Keystone pipeline exploration, Syrian refugee program, the raising of fuel standards, the banning of energy exploration in AK and the Arctic – Trump could even loosen background checks for gun purchases. He will also have a drone killing program at his disposal, as well as wide leeway to conduct military operations in the MidEast and Africa.
- he’s promised to begin, in the first hour of his presidency, the deportation of anyone who has entered the country illegaly – to me this is the scariest prospect. It would require an estimated police force of 90k+ to go door-to-door, an entity that cannot exist. He wants 11.3 million undocumented people deported in 2yrs – 15k arrests per day, 20x the current deportation pace. It would be modeled on Eisenhowers “Operation Wetback” during which many citizens were mistakenly deported, and many immigrants died during the actual deportation. To me this is the line that can’t be crossed.
- a political scientist is quoted as saying that politics will constrain Trump, because the pres-elect finds everything to be negotiable.. I’m wary of these charitable views
- analysis of past presidencies shows that candidates accomplish about 70% of their campaign promises
- Roger Stone, an adviser, claims Trump will pursue his most radical ideas, using the Muslim ban as an example
- his family business will remain intact and is expected to be controlled by his sons – the president is not required to relinquish control of business ventures despite possible conflicts of interest
- he will be encouraged to go after federal employee tenure (I didn’t know this existed – seems like it’s achieved after four years) with the hope that public employee unions similarly unravel
- he would need Congress to needed to repeal Obamacare and cut taxes, and Dems in the Senate can still filibuster with their numbers
- unilaterally he can renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, ban Muslims and order the JD to pursue certain cases more aggressively
- but civil servants do not have to follow unlawful orders.. some hope there for some of the egregious torture-related things Trump has said
- he has said he will not unilaterally back other NATO countries
- Gingrich believes Trump will have to build some sort of wall or fence.. it’s projected to cost $25B+ over four years and the money would have to come from Congress
- Gingrich also favors the recreation of the House Un-American Activities Committee..
- Trump will chase supply-side economics and be able to withdraw from TPP, NAFTA and even the WTO. He could also impose tariffs on certain goods from China, sparking a trade war. But if that comes to pass, it’s fine because “if the economy crashed you could make a deal,” he’s said.
- what next steps can I personally take to protect vulnerable groups?
- I do not find Remnick encouraging
- other ideas: donate time and money to EFF and ACLU, volunteer in schools
notes for much later
- even until late on Tuesday, it was a foregone conclusion that Clinton would win, at least among the polls and analysts that I read regularly. Only the Trump campaign and his media apparatus claimed the polls were wrong or perhaps rigged. Stories have come out that say even his campaign’s internal polling was off.
- she is winning the popular vote, even before all of CA is counted
- she lost 70+ EVs by <200k votes combined
- turnout seems low – only ~120M votes cast with >220M eligible voters in the country
- some data suggests over 200 counties that Obama won were lost by Clinton, primarily in PA and WI.
- Trump received fewer votes than Romney in many states
- the above two points are being used to argue that it’s not about the racism of the white working class, but instead about the failure of Dems to turnout. And the failure of turnout is due to poor tactical choices and an unlikeable candidate. I don’t see it though – people still voted for a racist and a misogynist, that can’t be overlooked.
- I voted Hillary for her policies, CA AG Kamala Harris for her pro-environment stances (though her opponent dabbed at the debate, haha), the incumbent, Anna Eshoo for her track record and policies, Jerry Hill for his record on the environment, Vicki Veenker for all the endorsements she earned from env groups ( :/ ), Grace Mah for her experience, Lucas Ramirez, Thida Cornes, Chris Clark and Margaret Abe-Koga based on their endorsements from the Santa Clara League of Conservation Voters
- state propositions.. thank god for ballot.fyi I voted yes on:
- 52 (Medi-Cal hospital fee disbursements),
- 58 (allows local groups decide how to teach English in their communities)
- 59 (advise the legislature to attempt to overturn the Citizens United decision)
- 62 (repeal the death penalty)
- 63 (stricter regulations around ammunition sales)
- 64 (legalizing pot)
- 65 (plastic bag fees go to an env fund)
- 67 (statewide ban on plastic bags)
- I voted no on:
- 51 ($9B bond to upgrade schools)
- 53 (statewide voters have to approve revenue bonds > $2B)
- 54 (legislative bills frozen for 72hrs)
- 55 (extending tax increase on highest earners)
- 56 (increased cigarette tax)
- 57 (parole changes for non-violent offenders)
- 60 (requiring adult film performers to wear condoms)
- 61 (state agencies will attempt to pay what the VA pays for prescription drugs)
- 66 (changes death penalty procedures – would’ve preempted my ‘yes’ vote on 62)
- local stuff:
- yes on A (affordable housing bond), B (sales tax increase for transit improvements) and W (rent stabilization arbitration), but no on V (rent stabilization amendment – creates a weird, unelected parallel council)
old notes on Bernie vs Hillary:
California votes on June 7 along with a handful of other states – only DC votes later..lame.